By : Satyaki Paul
On May 31 2021, National Statistical Office (NSO) announced that India’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has declined by 7.3% in the fiscal year of 2020-21. This is a subset of NSO’s provisional National Income estimates which is marginally better than former year at 8% in the fiscal year of 2019-20. Preceding to the coronavirus pandemic the value stood at 4%.
In the same time period, the Gross Value Added (GVA) declined to 6.2% in comparison to the 4.1% incline the former fiscal year. The GVA for trade, hotels, transport, communication, etc. exhibited the lowest ebb at 18.2%, closely trailed by construction at -8.6%, mining and quarrying at -8.5%, and manufacturing at -7.2%. Numerous economists opined that this would turn towards positive side for 2021-22 due to the base effect, negating the effects of COVID-19.Nonetheless, there are some sectors which contradicted this trend such as agriculture, forestry and fishing at 3.6%, and electricity, gas, water supply and other utility services at 1.9%.
Our country has already gone through a phase of technical recession in the first quarter of our fiscal cycle. These negative contours received a shot in the arm in the month of September-December of 2020 with nominal growth of 0.5%.
In current context, numerous states such as Maharashtra, West Bengal, etc. are strictly following lockdown protocols to contain the spread of coronavirus. Huge quantities of COVID vaccine is the need of the hour which will increase the number of individuals vaccinated. Thus, with lessening of COVID spread through efficient management of COVID cases, which will lead the unlock phases. This in turn aid revival of economic activity in a neo-normal condition. However, the initial data provided by the NSO has positive note to it due to the use of GVA in calculation. In due course, the data might go under revisions as it impacts numerous activities associated with the coronavirus pandemic.
The author works as a Ph.D. Research Scholar at the Department of Anthropology, University of Calcutta, and the co-author of the book Anthropology For All (2021).