By Munibar Barui
On September 11, 2021 the Chief Minister of Gujarat Vijay Rupani was replaced by the BJP high command. This was the 5th Chief Minister of a BJP-run state, which was changed by the part in this year itself. The high command is set to meet at Gandhinagar on September 12, 2020 to discuss the next candidate for the Chief Minister of the state of Gujarat.
Let’s see how does these incidences unfold: Firstly, which states were involved in shifting of the CMs in the current year? Who were replaced?
In 2021, such process began with the change of Uttarakhand Chief Minister Trivendra Singh Rawat, who was replaced by Tirath Singh Rawat, who was himself replaced by Pushkar Dhami in 4-months. In Assam, Sarbanand Sonowal was replaced by Himanta Biswa Sarma; B.S. Yeddyurappa in Karnataka was replaced by Basavaraj Bommai. So, this is not a new thing for the party to frequently replace their CMs and bring in new candidates.
Secondly, why does Rupani’s resignation raises eye brows?
Vijay Rupani held the post of Chief Minister from 2016 after Anandiben Mafatbhai Patel was the CM since Narendra Modi became the Prime Minister of India in 2014. These CMs were brought into limelight by the BJP high command through pomp and style. And, their quick dismissals shift the equation turbulently. Nonetheless, each and every state has its own story of local politics which become immediate reasons for the removal, there are also meta narratives to this drift.
Thirdly, who might be the next CM of Gujarat?
Among the names of politicians which are doing the rounds as likely replacement for Mr. Rupani are outgoing Deputy Chief Minister Nitin Patel, Union Health Minister Mansukh Mandaviya, Administrator of Union Territories of Daman and Diu and Lakshadweep Praful Patel and outgoing Cabinet Minister and former State party chief R.C. Faldu. The State BJP president C.R. Patil’s name also figured among the list of applicants but in a video statement he ruled himself out stating that he was not a Chief Ministerial candidate.
Fourthly, why such change is taking place in most of the states run by BJP?
Prime Minister Narendra Modi remains popular and has managed big majorities for himself in the national elections, this has not translated for the party when it comes to Assembly polls, especially since 2018. The party managed to do well in Karnataka in May 2018, but not quite enough to form the government without a massive poaching operation on Opposition MLAs; it then lost the three polls in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Chhattisgarh, followed by Jharkhand in 2019, and only managed to form the government in Haryana in a coalition with the Dushyant Chautala-led Jannayak Janata Party (JJP).
Fifthly, what is the status of coalition governments across India?
In Maharashtra, the alliance between the BJP and Shiv Sena got enough seats to form the government but fell through on account of the party’s ally walking out of the partnership. In Bihar, the BJP did well, but is in a coalition. Only Assam is a holdout in a series of losses in State Assembly polls.
Lastly, what will be the resultant of such changes?
The changes effected by the BJP at chief ministerial levels in certain States are, therefore, a replication of the high command’s leadership assessment of the political ground realities, that faces at the State level need to be accountable for polls, and that the party cannot, again and again deploy its strongest face, that of Mr. Modi at all times, in all elections. Local faces are under consideration who will have similar impact.Furthermore, the BJP’s image as the party of governance, which it has been sedulously cultivating for years, is under severe threat following the second wave of COVID-19 and monetisation of government assets.
Nonetheless, in some states such as Uttar Pradesh, the decision to replace the chief minister was not taken. In other States, there was a change, especially after the massive Union Cabinet reorganization. In conclusion, it can be said that most of campaigns are stories which are employed during the elections, with a narrative, a hero and a challenge to be overcome, but State polls are about that State level face and his/her story (as seen in West Bengal). Within the high command heavy organisational structure that the BJP has become, this reality is gaining ground albeit in its own way. The change is still being induced from the top, but with the hope that it changes the current tendency of Assembly reduction.